Oscar, we hardly know ye

Hinson's breaking his back betting on "Brokeback" like he does. Like everyone else is. Me too.

BEST PICTURE

Hinson's what will, should win: "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote"

My what will, should win: "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote"

I don't entire agree with Mr. Hinson on "Crash," however. "Someone should press charges if this preachy polemic steals the big win," he says. I think "Crash" is an excellent movie from a seasoned screenwriter and novice director (Paul Haggis). Dissing L.A.'s "Crash" in 2006, though, is like dissing N.Y.C.'s "Do the Right Thing" 15+ years ago. If any movie has the chance to upset "Brokeback," its "Crash."
(20/20 HINDSIGHT EDIT) Well, at least I wasn't totally wrong.

Frankly, and this is coming from a "Brokeback" hater who hasn't seen the gay cowboys, I'd rather see "Crash" come out ahead choosing between the two. (20/20 HINDSIGHT EDIT) And thank God it did. With the movie's its inter-producer controversy, however, it doesn't look like the movie's got its shit together. I would count out "Capote" completely, either. If it won, it wouldn't be the first time a freshman director/screenwriter with an relatively unknown male lead won Best Picture. Remember "American Beauty" in 1999?

BEST DIRECTOR

Hinson's who will, should win: Ang Lee, Ang Lee

My who will, should win: Ang Lee, David Cronenberg

"But he's not nominated," you say. "He made 'A History of Violence,' but wasn't nominated for Best Director." Well buzz off. Cronenberg hasn't even been nominated for a single Golden Globe OR Oscar in his entire career!!!! That's a damn crime. Even his American avant-garde counterpart David, Mr. Lynch, has gotten a couple of Oscar noms.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Hinson's what will, should win: N/A

My what will, should win: "Crash," "Crash"

No one writes quite like Paul Haggis. He can leave you laughing uncomfortably with relief one minute, emotionally gutted the next. (see: "Million Dollar Baby")

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Hinson's what will win, should win: N/A

My what will win, should win: "Brokeback Mountain," "Capote"

"Brokeback" will probably take this one, too. Even though it came from a short story that, I guarantee you, maybe two people have read. "Capote" should win because its just amazing. "Munich," with Tony Kushner on board, could have totally taken this, but there were just too many cooks in the kitchen for that one. I wonder if its only a matter of time until a graphic novel adaptation ("A History of Violence," "Sin City") wins this award...?

BEST ACTOR

Hinson's who will win, should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Philip Seymour Hoffman

My who will win, should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Philip Seymour Hoffman/David Strathairn

Hoffman and Strathairn were like two sides of the same dramatic, journalistic coin this year. Strathairn was extremely restrained to the point of being dry and boring. Hoffman, however, really cut loose with the Capote mannerisms and voice. Both of them played historical figures I idolize and both actors are overdue for Oscars. I would be ecstatic if either won.

BEST ACTRESS

Hinson's who will win, should win: Reese Witherspoon, Felicity Huffman

My who will win, should win: Felicity Huffman, Felicity Huffman

I have faith that the Oscars will again give awards that are overdue, like last year when they finally gave Morgan Freeman and Charlie Kaufman statues. I've been a fan of Mrs. Huffman's acting since Sports Night and think few other actresses deserve an Oscar more than she does. Reese Witherspoon may have the cute factor, but Huffman has the raw talent. I'm nervous, however, that Reese will get over with the fact that she telegenically played a charicature of a famous singer (major Oscar bait), much like Jamie Foxx did last year.

(20/20 HINDSIGHT EDIT) I should've known the Academy would be that stupid. Fuck Reese Witherspoon.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Hinson's who will win, should win: George Clooney, William Hurt

My who will win, should win: George Clooney, Paul Giamatti

George Clooney deserves this Oscar for all the great work he's done this year, and I'm happy to see him take home an Oscar. But what does Giamatti have to do, huh? Bleed? This guy's going to be like Martin Scorsese of acting pretty soon. Giamatti is amazing in everything he does and needs an Oscar pronto. William Hurt was also quite good, and he was on screen enough (10 minutes) to make an impression on me, but he's done better. (20/20 HINDSIGHT) Roger Ebert was right, "George Clooney really is the new Errol Flynn."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Hinson's who will, should win: Rachel Weisz, Amy Adams

My who will, should win: Rachel Weisz, Catherine Keener

Another example of someone whose been waiting in the wings for a long time now for an Oscar is Catherine Keener. She's always amazing. "Capote" was no exception. The only person who seems possible to win this award is Weisz, however. Whatever. Wake me when Keener wins. I wouldn't mind the adorable Amy Adams, either.


Keep in mind, Mr. Hinson has batted 1.000 the last two years in all the major Oscar categories, whereas I... well... suck in comparison. We'll see.

(20/20 HINDSIGHT EDIT) I got all of 'em except for two. Not too bad. We'll see how I fare next year.